ABSTRACT 1

1. INTRODUCTION 5

Tourism and Society

Location, Location, Location?

"Hospitality 2000"

2. HISTORY 11

3. THE U.S. TOURISM MARKET 15

4. THE INTERNATIONAL MARKET 24

Europe, the Motor of the Industry and Its Trends

The International Market and Sustainability

5. TOURISM AND TERRORISM 45

6. THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF SEPTEMBER 11, 2001 50

Industry Examples

America’s Most Affected Cities

The International Impact

7. TOURISM RECOVERY 67

8. IMPLEMENTATIONS AND CHANGES 72

Changes in Corporate Travel

Increased Use of Corporate Charter Planes

Online Booking

Video Conference

Changes in the Reservation Market

Expedia

Travelocity

Orbitz

HDS

The International Market

Changes in Security

National security

International security

9. OUTLOOK 88

10. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION 91

11. ABBREVIATIONS 94

12. SOURCES CONSULTED 95

As the final page turned on the old millennium, the tourism industry found itself in a competitive landscape greatly altered by new technologies, business practices, and consumer demands. Indeed, the new decade was poised to bridge the socioeconomic forces that had shaped the Industrial Age and the emerging capabilities and markets of the Information Age. The industry was growing at 10 percent in the year 2000 and slowed slightly with the recession. But had the industry overlooked a major flaw? Could severe security lapses destroy it? According to the behaviorist Abraham Maslow and his pyramid model, people need to fulfill their needs on one level before continuing to the next. Security had to be met before a culture could be developed, and historically travel has been a part of culture.

Could the giant tourism industry be destroyed? An industry said to give employment to 100 million people worldwide? Travel was getting more uncomfortable, with more congestion, delays, deadly accidents, terrorist threats. Did people just need a wake-up call to change their behavior and turn their back on tourism?

Tourism was tested on September 11, 2001, when a terrible attack shattered many lives. The travel industry, which had seemed so stable, was hit hard. Few imagined it to be so vulnerable.

In the 1960s few thought that travel in the new millennium would be so stressful. The preparation today: Call the travel agency, speak with a more or less informed agent. Get the paperwork sent. On travel day: Stand in line for hours, with airplanes delayed sometimes for several more hours. Miss connecting flight; get bumped off overbooked flight. Arrive at destination, with more hassle to get to the final lodging place.

It should be: The computer finds you a perfect destination. Arrive at the airport. Check in biometrically, with luggage already sent and no paperwork. Be automatically alerted for rare delays. Roll on transport bands to the gangway, where you are screened for safety. Luggage tested for explosives in a detonator box. Arrive and be shuttled to your destination, where the concierge has already rolled out a plan for you, based on your profile. Look it up on the monitor in the room. Just choose and relax.

The technology is there. Why is it not implemented?

Tourism is said to have become more volatile and subject to the economic pressures of recession, the lack of security and safety, and environmental threats, especially to health.

Until recently the gigantic tourism industry was doing well, very well. This growth steadily continued, with only minor setbacks in the 1980s, since the airline deregulation of the 1970s. Direct hotel travel expenditures in the United States in 2000 totaled $326 billion, with 75 percent spent by leisure travelers, not counting money spent on transportation. The year 2000 showed record growth rates, and even the recession in 2001 was not really threatening, with 688 million people traveling internationally. There was no obvious need for a fast change.

On September 11, 2001, the events of a terror attack shook the world. Of all industries it hit the tourism the most. The weapons were airplanes, the main means of transportation. The attack occurred on United States soil, a stable country with no war at home and good security. The world was in shock. Was an industry shattered? Business leaders, politicians, and CEOs had to come up with plans to get consumers to travel again in order to avoid a bigger crisis. An industry that was projected to generate 100 million jobs worldwide and move 1.6 billion people every year by the year 2020 was simply too important to the world economy. People who had spent money on travel, lodging, food, and entertainment all of a sudden didn’t. So plans were enacted fast to get travelers back on track.

Business travelers sometimes took another approach, away from public transportation or away from travel itself.

Before the attack, projections showed that in 2020 1.6 billion people would be traveling. Would they now forsake traveling? Would they jump on video-conferencing? Would there be no more business travelers, who account for 30 percent of the travel business? What about leisure travelers? Why visit the grandparents on Thanksgiving day, when they can be brought into the living room virtually? Why go to Hawaii, Florida, or the Caribbean, when you can vacation in your backyard, where artificial beaches can be created no matter the weather?

On the other hand the potential for growth is vast. According to the World Tourism Organization, less than 3.5 percent of world population takes part in international travel.

The majority of the population in developed countries are interested in and can afford international travel. Present levels of traffic are below market and industry capacity. This number could easily grow to 7 percent in the next decade, considering the rise in world population that will more than double the numbers of today.

But will they go?

What will the future for tourism hold? Will it grow and grow? Or will time and a virtual world make it obsolete? If nearly 2 billion people travel soon, how will the logistics work? The air space is highly congested in some areas. Many monuments--from the pyramids in Egypt to the Africa’s national parks, from the cathedrals in Venice to the town of Canterbury, England--already suffering from too much traffic, have begun to restrict access.

The behaviorist Abraham Maslow (1908-70) studied successful people. Maslow decided that almost everyone wants to be happy and loving, but they have particular needs that they must meet before they can act unselfishly.† Maslow said that that most people want more than they have. Once people have met their most basic needs, they then develop higher needs. Maslow said, "As one desire is satisfied, another pops up in its place." Maslow created a five-level hierarchy of needs:

Physiological requirements. Biological necessities such as food, water, and oxygen. These needs are the strongest because a person will die if they are not met.

Safety. The need to feel safe during emergencies or times of disorder like rioting. Children more commonly have this need when they feel afraid.

Love and belonging. The need to escape loneliness and alienation, to give and receive love, and to have a sense of belonging.

Esteem. The need to feel valuable, to have self-respect and the respect of others. If a person does not fulfill this need, he or she feels inferior, weak, helpless, and worthless.

Self-actualization. Maslow taught that a very small group of people reach a level called self-actualization, where all of their needs are met. Maslow described self-actualization as a person’s finding his or her "calling."

Societies develop when people reach a particular level in Maslow’s hierarchy. Once people meet their physiological needs and they feel safe, they begin to develop a culture and an advanced civilization.

Does this model mean that safety concerns could bring the tourism industry down? Could technology in conjunction with safety risks make the tourism industry obsolete? Or has tourism become so much a part of modern life that it is now one of the basic needs? Will the only question be who the remaining players are?

Location has always mattered. Just look at the planned development of Cancún, Mexico. The Mexican government, looking for a share of the international tourist industry, studied the country and discovered a perfect location: Cancún. The place the Mayans called "pot of gold" offered almost everything: a peninsula with 300 days of sunshine, 50 kilometers of white sandy beach, a lagoon with tranquil water for all kinds of water sports, historic monuments--and all a very short flight from the United States. The only thing missing was a tourist infrastructure. So a master plan was rolled out in the 1970s, with an airport; the first stretch of resorts; an entertainment center for food, fun, and shopping; and a village for the local workers. Today there are 19,000 hotel rooms, 1.5 million visitors per year, and approximately 260,000 permanent residents in a once desolate area. It’s an economic success story.

Clearly location did matter here.

Location will also matter for more exotic locations--like space. Space travel is now a reality. Since California businessman Dennis Tito became the world’s first tourist on a Russian spacecraft in April 2001, many people have put a deposit down on the Russian C-21, a minivan-like vehicle designed to bring tourists, for a mere $100,000, on a trip with a three-minute stay in "outer space" (meaning 62 miles outside the 40,000-foot range). Quite a price reduction from the $20 million that Mr. Tito is reported to have paid. The Japanese have just successfully reflown their VTOL rocket vehicle. The reusable VTOL was first flown in 1999. Only 3 meters tall, it uses a liquid-hydrogen-fueled engine, and is designed for quick turnaround, easy maintenance, and easy inspection. The vehicle is currently the only reusable VTOL (NASA canceled a similar project in 1995). It is considered a breakthrough in the potential transport of tourists to space and back in a cost-effective manner and may be the first step to space hotels.

But does location matter if one location is interchangeable with another? Back in the 1990s, Dutch developers were looking for solutions to make resort projects financially feasible in a Holland’s short summer season. Their solution: entire villages under one roof. Customers could spend their winter vacations in their bathing suits surrounded by palm trees and sand.

Does all this mean no more tourism in the traditional sense, because the world has become so global that it does not really matter where you are (with few exceptions)? Does it mean that competing services, including an expanding range of leisure offerings (theme parks, entertainment, health clubs, sporting events, and cultural activities) in residential areas will slow travel spending?

Assuming that tourism as an industry will survive, one question will always remain for those within the industry: that is, who the players are.

A 1996 study titled "Hospitality 2000" commissioned by Arthur Andersen tries to come up with answers to those questions. The study, which outlined some intriguing trends in the hotel business, was inspired by broad questions: Who are the guests of the future? How will today’s hotel companies adapt to meet the needs of a rapidly changing clientele? What role will technology play in providing high-quality services and enabling the industry to become truly globalized?

The survey results span five continents, covering issues that will define success for companies in the hospitality industry for years to come. Some 500 responses came from CEOs, corporate executives, and general managers based in three regions: the Americas; Asia-Pacific; and Europe, the Middle East, India, and Africa.

The results of "Hospitality 2000" point to a central finding: The capacity to foresee and capitalize on change will define the successful hospitality company of the future. Beyond this truism, there is an urgent need to identify what the competitive environment of the future will require with its intense focus on serving customer needs. The "Hospitality 2000" study examines five key areas: the market, products, organization, capital, and technology. In this period of global transition, these factors will define not only success but also the very ability of hotel organizations to survive.

The "Hospitality 2000" study sends a clear signal that the industry will need to shift its primary focus from physical assets (the hotels owned and managed) to virtual assets (customers).

The market. The globalization of world business and lifestyles--and the growth in international travel--will be major forces in marketing hospitality products in 2000 and beyond. Among the executives surveyed, the focus on international travel is heaviest in the Asia-Pacific region.

Leisure versus business: Most executives surveyed believe leisure travel will significantly outperform the business travel segment in the future.

The product. Rapid market changes and the explosion in new technologies not only support but also require innovation in designing the hotel product of the future. Managers must consider changing customer demands with an understanding that those customers are the primary assets of a hotel organization.

Organization. As hotel organizations have reassessed their organizational structures in the last decade, corporate reengineering, function relocation, total quality management, and employee empowerment have become watchwords in the lodging industry. In the future, a customer focus (both internal and external) will imbue business decisions at all levels of the hospitality organization. But as for the type of organizations that will see the most growth, respondents mainly agree: 70 percent see global hotel chains growing the fastest.

The "Hospitality 2000" study confirmed that while change is occurring at an unprecedented rate, envisioning the future is not always on the minds of the industry’s executives.

Impact of technology. Technology’s impact on the hotel organizations of the future will be pervasive, greatly altering how companies organize and market themselves globally. Its biggest impact, however, may be the way it facilitates the delivery of additional products and services to the guest in both physical place and virtual space. The 21st century will bring the era of the fully automated hotel, connecting the customer to a universe of diverse products and services offered by an array of providers. Technology may ultimately drive change in the very nature of the hospitality industry as the lines separating lodging from the office, retail, and entertainment sectors continue to blur.

Conclusion

"Hospitality 2000" confirms that the industry is in a profound state of change. Industry leaders will need to adapt to changes transforming the marketing of hospitality products, the product itself, the hospitality organization, the ability to attract capital, and the technological revolution. With the focus on the customer as the organization’s chief asset, new industry standards will emerge based on the use of customer information systems, the extension of hotel services into the virtual marketplace, and the embracing of REVPAC and other performance measures. The author of "Hospitality 2000" concluded that the years ahead will offer companies unprecedented opportunities as they forge a strategic path. Insight about a wide array of forces that will shape the future of the industry in both business and leisure travel will be essential to success.

While looking at the physical assets of real estate and at the virtual assets of the customer, the study left out one very important factor: the logistical lifeline, air transportation. Terrorism, a constant threat and very much a reality since the 1980s, could at any time shine a new light on the question, How resilient or vulnerable or maybe even obsolete is this industry?

The following chapters will try to answer that question by showing the past, discussing the present with its unprecedented changes, and giving a short peek into the future. They will also discuss the major effects of the terror attack of September 11, 2001, on the United States.resorts.

Recovery of the tourism industry is already under way, and the industry is expected to regain pre-crisis levels by the third or fourth quarter of this year, according to World Tourism Organization forecasts in March 2002.

"Our industry has weathered the most serious crisis in its history and already we see light at the end of the tunnel," WTO Secretary-General Francesco Frangialli told members of the organization’s Tourism Recovery Committee during the Internationale Tourismus Boerse (ITB) in Berlin in March 2002.

"Tourism in January and February was significantly stronger than in November and December. We expect a staggered recovery to take place in Europe, Africa, the western Mediterranean, and the Caribbean between July and September," he said.

International tourist arrivals in 2001 slumped by 1.3 percent to 688 million, the only significant decrease since World War II. Two factors combined to produce this decline: the global economic slowdown, which began at the end of 2000, and the tragic terrorist attacks on the United States on September 11.

The crisis committee was created by the WTO three weeks after the terrorist attacks to provide leadership and guidance to the industry during this difficult period. It included some 21 tourism ministers from the countries most affected by the crisis, as well as 15 private sector leaders from the WTO Business Council, representing tour operators, transport companies, and hotels. The group first met last November to share market information on the impact of the crisis and to develop strategies to overcome it. Later the name of the group was changed to the Tourism Recovery Committee to better reflect the improving situation.

The committee, chaired by Egyptian tourism minister Mamdouh El Beltagui, met on during the ITB to take stock of the recovery and analyze some of the lessons learned over the previous six months.

"The crisis taught us how vulnerable the tourism industry is and how quickly consumers change their ways," said Beltagui. "But we have also seen an unprecedented phenomenon, with all parts of the tourism industry joining forces to overcome the crisis."

Governments had responded to the tourism slowdown in a variety of ways, including subsidies, tax breaks, shifts in marketing strategies and increased advertising. The world’s major tour operators say those efforts are beginning to bear fruit

"The tourism industry has now passed the low point of the downswing," said Günter Ilhau of Germany’s Preussag Group. "January and February bookings have been lower than previous years, but we see a gradual return of consumer confidence in both leisure and business travel."

Tour operators are optimistic because experience has shown tourism to be one of the world’s most resilient industries. They note that during the crisis travelers usually postpone trips rather than cancel them altogether, so that when the crisis winds down there is often a pent-up demand that results in a mini travel boom.

While demand is slowly returning, the crisis has changed the face of the airline industry forever. Overcome by massive cost impacts and sharp declines in demand, several well-known airlines that were already having financial trouble--such as Sabena, Swissair, Air Afrique and Ansett--have gone out of business. In Europe, their place is being taken by new low-fare airlines and regional operators, but in less-developed parts of the world, air transport remains a big problem for the industry.

"Air service is a lifeline to growth for emerging states," said Geoffrey Lipman, special advisor to WTO on trade liberalization. "They need help in improving safety and recuperating from the crisis that they cannot afford, which is why pro-development support and foreign investment in air services is needed."

Participants of the fair agreed that fear of flying was now a marginal problem for the travel industry. The general director of Turespaña, Spain’s tourism promotion agency, Germ·n Porras said the lack of capacity on transatlantic routes was a bigger problem for his country in boosting visitor numbers.

Ironically, the crisis seems to have helped underline the importance of tourism to national economies and has speeded up much needed improvements. Philippines tourism secretary Richard Gordon reported that his country has now made tourism a senior cabinet position and has increased security to the point that Manila airport was recently chosen by the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) as one of the ten safest airports in the world.

According to Mexican tourism minister Leticia Navarro, the crisis has also offered unprecedented opportunities to communicate the positive aspects of the tourism industry--such as the ability to eliminate poverty and foster international understanding and peace.

Although tourism appears to be back on track, the committee agreed to maintain its momentum by continuing to cooperate. A special Euro-Mediterranean group has been set up on the initiative of Spain and Tunisia to encourage cooperation between the countries of the European Union and northern Africa. The World Tourism Organization will also continue to provide assistance to member countries in the areas of marketing, communications and crisis management.

The domestic tourism industry is also well on track to recovery. Jupiter Media Metrix, a leading company in Internet and new-technology analysis and measurement, published in its March 2002 survey of more than 1,800 online travel buyers and browsers that 69 percent of leisure travelers and 49 percent of business travelers expect to travel the same amount this year as last. Travel providers and suppliers, Jupiter analysts say, should continue aggressive marketing efforts to capture the dollars devoted to travel this year. At the same time, travel companies must be aware that people are looking to use less expensive modes of transportation, possibly traveling for shorter distances, and driving instead of flying.

As a result, Jupiter analysts believe that low-fare, short-haul airlines and hotels stand to benefit from consumer and business travel in the near term.

This survey sounds like any survey result in the time of recession. People are still spending money, just less than before. Besides a break in travel of perhaps two to three months, it seems that there has been no long-term economic effect on the tourism industry from the events of September 11.

Corporate travel is recovering just over six months after the terrorist attacks, according to a new survey by the National Business Travel Association (NBTA). Yet, corporate travel managers believe it may take nearly a year for travel to reach 2000 levels.

In the NBTA survey of 200 corporate travel managers, conducted March 8 through 13, 2002, 65 percent responded that they have seen demand for travel increase by up 10 percent to or more since January of this year. Consumer-product companies and computer and electronic companies reported the most significant increase in travel demand, a sign that many of the sectors hardest hit by the poor economy are bouncing back. Travel to the east North Central region of the country showed the most significant increase in travel, while New England is also doing well as a destination for business travel. Those two regions were both top destinations for companies, with travel increases of more than 10 percent.

"Six months after September 11th, we’re seeing signs of recovery in corporate travel," said Marianne McInerney, NBTA’s executive director. "But business travel is still struggling to get back to the levels we saw two years ago." Twenty-two percent of travel managers expected travel to return to previous levels within the next six months, while 25 percent expected recovery in six to nine months, and 35 percent expected it would be nine months to a year before business travel recovers.

Also important to increasing travel expenditures are improvements to the aviation security systems and the perception of risk. Travel managers strongly indicated that returning to consistent check-in times at airports would be crucial to getting business travel expenditures back to previous levels. Many corporations were considering reducing out-of-town meetings (40 percent) or using more conference calls (56 percent) or Webcasts (49 percent) if security processes continued to impede travelers.

In order to make security screening more reliable and efficient, 66 percent of travel managers favor a "trusted traveler" I.D. system that would allow frequent travelers to regain efficiencies at airport security checkpoints, up from 50 percent in January. "The ease and predictability of passing through travel security systems is critical in business travel decisions," concluded McInerney.

The economy is not where it would have been without the events of September 11, but the recovery is well under way. It is clearly measurable and faster than most experts, even positively thinking ones, had believed. A good indication is also the stock market. Stocks for the number-one travel site, Expedia, were up 279 percent between September 11, 2001, and April 25, 2002; those for number-two Travelocity were up 105 percent.

So what will traveling be like ten years from now? Some leading developers of high-tech products and services for the hospitality industry shared their perspectives at Eurhotec, a conference held in Paris in February 2001.

Technology that supports customer relationships is where the next wave of innovation will be seen, said Caroyn Viens, from IBM Travel Related Services, sketching a scenario of the travel experience of the future:

· a WAP phone that allows remote check-in and in-flight movie selection before arrival at the airport

· in-flight video-conferencing with colleagues on other planes

· voice-activated GPS-equipment rental cars

· hotel scanners that identify the guest upon on arrival, allowing instant key delivery and customized information on the guestroom TV

· automatic transfer of hotel e-folio to the guest’s corporate expense report

· WAP phone notification of flight rescheduling information to the traveler and his/her home and office

· biometric scanning to pass customs at the airport

This could be happening sooner than anticipated, said Viens, as the technology on which these features are based is already being experimented with. IBM is currently testing a "travel card" that will allow a personal digital device to receive a boarding card electronically within ten seconds of check-in.

According to Michael Hartmann, director of industry marketing hotels for Siemens ICN, the mobile Internet will be the next big thing to hit the business world. With the proliferation of non-PC Internet devices, business travelers are no longer tethered to a computer to access the Web. The challenge for hoteliers, said Hartmann, will be to spot alternative revenue opportunities, because if a guest has mobile Internet access, he won’t use the hotel infrastructure. For example, with a wireless LAN, the hotel could play the role of an Internet service provider and provide a portal, earning a percentage of the transaction fee. To be successful, he emphasized, hotels must be "embedded" in strategic partnerships, for example, with airports, rail networks, and other providers in the travel chain.

The mobile Internet is indeed on the horizon, agreed Peter Agel, CEO of Trust International, based in Germany, where mobile Internet users are predicted to outnumber those relying on land-line telephone access by 2003. Services in the m-business environment will differ from existing Internet services, he insisted.

Success will depend on having an online real-time distribution network, a big range of e-distribution partners, and a truly global presence. Most important, he said, will be multimedia content management that allows the customer to buy what they see. "It’s the services that will count in the future, not the IT," he insisted. "E-commerce and m-commerce will change the hotel managers’ perspective from the local to the global."

Interconnectivity of in-room devices was tipped as the technology development of the future by VingCard Elsafe’s vice president of marketing, Erik Olsen. He said it is only a matter of time before air-conditioning, locking, minibar, TV, phone, safe, and energy systems will be connected via a central server to key hotel departments, such as the front desk, kitchen, and engineering. This type of connectivity could, for example, make it possible to alert guests checking out that they have left passports and tickets in the room safe. It could also be used to ensure that, in the event of a fire, guest-room doors are simultaneously opened and evacuation instructions are issued.

In the ensuing debate, chaired by Jean-Paul Nichols, hotel marketing vice president of Cendant Corporation, panelists made the following observations:

· technology will "stick" only if it is customer-centric and if it helps the hotel to improve guest retention

· the speed of the evolution of m-business will depend on the user-friendliness of the devices involved

· hotels that take the outsourcing option (using ASPs, for example) will need to build strong relationships with their service providers

· there is a pressing need not only for greater staff training but also more guest education on what technology can do

Whatever the future may hold for the traveler, it will be aimed to make travel even more desirable than it already is. International travel could increase easily to 1 billion, 2 billion, or more. The only problem: right now the transport industry is not ready to fulfill the demand.

Tourism has been part of human culture for the last two millennia, and it will be for the next millennium. More people, and a greater percentage of them, will travel than ever before. In some industrialized nations, tourism is often viewed as a consumer good and no longer a luxury item. Most Europeans get paid vacation from their employers, as a state-guaranteed right that unions have won for them. As shown in this study Europeans use their discretionary time to travel widely, anywhere from their backyards to trips around the world. Europe may still be the motor of the industry, but it will not take long before Asia claims this spot. Tourism is nowadays a global industry and spans all continents. That globalization is exactly what makes it vulnerable. Incidents involving tourism, no matter where and when, ring the alarm bells around the world. The events of September 11 were therefore felt everywhere in the tourism industry.

"Sustainability" was the buzz word in tourism prior to September 11. In 1998 the WTO decided to declare the year 2002 the International Year of Ecotourism. The intent was to offer an opportunity for interested local and national stakeholders to review the social and environmental benefits that the ecotourism industry could offer host countries when suitably developed.

Ecotourism has been defined as a form of nature-based tourism in the marketplace, but it has also been formulated and studied as a sustainable development tool by WTO, development experts, and academics since 1990. The term "ecotourism," therefore, refers, on one hand, to a concept under a set of principles, and, on the other hand, to a specific market segment.

According to a 2001 WTO/OMT study, ecotourism may represent between 2 and 4 percent of global tourism. The global significance of ecotourism does not come from its revenue volume, but rather because it strives to

· protect the rapidly disappearing ecosystems that house most of the remaining biodiversity; and

· ensure that local communities have a voice in sustainable development, that they benefit positively from revenue flow, and that less harmful alternative livelihoods are available.

Eco-tourism is a step in the right direction at a time when some tourism destinations already have to restrict access, and the staggering numbers of future tourists have frightened some preservationists.

The events of September 11 diverted everyone’s focus to terrorism and took attention away from sustainability and feasibility. The classic author Johann Schiller once said, "The travel is the journey." Maybe it was for him. In these days, riding horse-drawn carriages with no shock absorbers does not seem enjoyable. People in the modern world complain with reason that transportation is the most negative aspect of a journey. According to FAA statistics, 15 percent of all flights during the 12 months ending February 2001 were delayed! Five percent of all luggage was misplaced in this time. It makes one wonder that in Tokyo, at the busiest train station, a train stops every 90 seconds carrying 3,000 passengers and is on time nearly always.

The industry seems unimpressed by consumer complaints. The year 2000 showed record numbers of such complaints, and this after a ten-year high. Industry leaders saw the recession more as an opportunity than a challenge. As one hotel giant stated, " It is easier to renovate a hotel with a 65 percent occupancy than with a 95 percent occupancy."

This was when the events of September 11 hit. Everybody in the industry reeled from one day to the next. First airline travel in the United States stalled for three days. Then occupancy rates in hotels went down from 95 percent to 3 percent. Whoever could, stayed home. Restaurants did not see customers for days and only a few in the next weeks. Future forecasts were not gray but black. It would take years to recover, some said. That was perhaps true for some. Some businesses no longer exist. For most part, however, not much has changed.

Jupiter’s latest survey of more than 1,800 online travel buyers and browsers reveals that 69 percent of leisure travelers and 49 percent of business travelers expect to travel the same amount this year as last. According to Jupiter analysts, travel providers and suppliers should continue aggressive marketing efforts to capture the dollars that are devoted to travel this year. At the same time, travel companies must be aware that people are looking to use less expensive modes of transportation this year, possibly traveling for shorter distances and driving instead of flying. As a result, Jupiter analysts believe that low-fare, short-haul airlines and hotels stand to benefit from consumer and business travel in the near term. This result sounds like the outcome of a survey in any recession. The terror attacks did little to really hurt the giant of tourism.